Weekly commentary / stock picks- Week ending Feb 20, 2026

Wall Street Balances Earnings Momentum with Rising Global Risks

Markets are entering the week at a crossroads, balancing optimism around Nvidia’s upcoming earnings with rising geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Major indexes posted modest gains last week — led by the Nasdaq’s 1.5% rebound — but technical resistance levels and uneven breadth suggest the recovery remains fragile. Trade tensions resurfaced after the Supreme Court struck down prior tariffs, prompting a new 10% global tariff, while oil prices surged and Treasury yields rose amid escalating Middle East tensions. Nvidia’s report is expected to serve as a key barometer for the AI sector, influencing semiconductor, infrastructure, and hyperscale stocks, even as software names lag on competitive pressures. Sector performance remains mixed, with energy, industrials, and materials showing relative strength, while technology and consumer discretionary attempt to regain momentum. Overall, the market continues to rotate beneath the surface, requiring disciplined risk management and patience as investors navigate a range-bound environment vulnerable to both earnings-driven acceleration and geopolitical setbacks.