US Stock Market Analysis, Commentary and Potential Picks - Week ending July 4,. 2025

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Markets Rally on Policy Progress and Risk-On Sentiment, Tech and Cyclicals Take the Lead

U.S. stocks surged to record highs during the holiday-shortened week, fueled by momentum on President Trump’s tax and trade agenda. Vice President JD Vance broke a Senate deadlock on the tax bill, boosting investor optimism and driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs. Though June’s job report showed slower private payroll growth, markets remained bullish. All major indices posted weekly gains, with the Dow up 3.32%, S&P 500 rising 2.25%, and Nasdaq climbing 2.15%. On the sector front, all 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week in the green, led by Materials, Industrials, and aggressive sectors like Technology, Communications, and Discretionary—signaling a clear risk-on sentiment. Solar stocks outshined on the back of surprise tax perks in the Senate budget bill. Meanwhile, trade tensions linger as Trump's tariff pause ends July 9, but markets are hopeful for de-escalation. Retailers gear up for major sales events, adding fuel to the bullish fire. July appears robust, with gains likely until mid-August, but investors should watch for profit-taking in hot sectors.