US Stock Market Analysis, Commentary and Picks for the week ending Oct 17 2025

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Whiplash Week: Relief Rally Inside a Wider Chop

After a tariff-spooked selloff, markets gapped up Monday and spent the week chopping in a wider range, finishing higher but near post-gap levels; transports led (~+4% on a J.B. Hunt boost) while the S&P 500 rose ~1.7%, Nasdaq ~2.46%, and small caps ~2.36% as the VIX slid ~17% to just above 20. Despite a third week of government shutdown headlines, traders leaned on hopes for an October rate cut. Seasonality flags a historically weak coming week before a typically bullish Oct 27–Jan 18 window. Technically, the S&P and Nasdaq held their gap but could still probe last Friday’s lows or the 50-day EMA. Under the hood, semis (helped by AVGO, AMD) powered Tech, gold/miners cooled, Energy stayed below its 200-day, Financials were flat on regional-bank jitters, defensives were mixed with Real Estate leading—and crypto proxies eye key 200-day tests. Bottom line: Tech/semis still lead, defensives are ballast not engines, and elevated volatility favors staying nimble around well-defined levels.