October US Stock Market Analysis, Commentary and Picks for the week ending Oct 31, 2025

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

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Weekly Wrap: Earnings Sizzle, Fed Trims, Trade Fears Cool

Markets whipsawed on headlines as earnings stole the show: a Fed 0.25% cut and Powell’s “December isn’t a done deal” cooled hopes for rapid easing, while U.S.–China trade angst eased after a Trump–Xi framework emerged. Early Friday strength faded, leaving modest index gains, but Big Tech set the tone—Amazon popped on beats and AWS momentum, Apple’s beat met iPhone jitters, Nvidia hit a $5T milestone and touted major AI chip supply, while Meta slid on AI-spend payback worries and Microsoft dipped post-print. Under the hood, Tech/Semis led (SMH/XLK), defensives lagged (XLU/XLP/XLRE), Financials stayed heavy but face favorable November seasonality, and uranium stayed hot (NLR bounce) as gold drifted toward support. With breadth soft and VIX ticking up, the playbook is “constructive but cautious”: keep positions sized, watchlists sharp, and exits ready—especially with AMD and more catalysts on deck.